Illinois Economy Growing at a Slower Pace, New Reports Show

Amanda Vinicky | September 4, 2024, 7:49 pm

The Illinois State Capitol is pictured in Springfield. (Jerry Nowicki / Capitol News Illinois)

Illinois’ economy is still growing but at a slower pace, according to two reports released Wednesday.

Fred Giertz, an economist at the Institute of Government and Public Affairs at the University of Illinois Urbana Champaign, reads the latest data as a “slowing economy so far with a soft landing.”

Thanks to our sponsors:

View all sponsors

“Not a recession,” Giertz said in a statement.

The institute measures the economy via a Flash Index, which combines inflation-adjusted rates of corporate earnings, consumer spending and personal income as an economic measure.

Numbers out Wednesday show the Flash Index dipped in July for the fourth straight month, but that the state’s economy is still growing.

Illinois’ unemployment rate is also increasing, to 5.2% in July. In contrast, the state’s unemployment rate in July 2023 was 4.4%.

Illinois as of July tied with California, behind Nevada, for having the second highest unemployment rate of all states.

The latest figures put the national unemployment rate at 4.3% in July.

In a briefing out Wednesday from Illinois’ Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, chief economist Benjamin Varner called the unemployment figures “disappointing.”

The commission also describes a “somewhat disappointing month” for sales tax revenues, which it reports came in at 3.1% below last August’s levels.

Revenue manager Eric Noggle wrote that this August had one less day for receiving state revenues than August last year, but that the lack of sales tax growth in recent months “is becoming concerning.”

Illinois took in more in corporate taxes in August, but that’s after a “weak July total,” Noggle wrote, and the corporate income tax “remains notably behind last year’s pace when combining” July and August — the first two months of Illinois’ fiscal year.

Like Giertz, Noggle described Illinois’ economy as having “modest growth.”

Contact Amanda Vinicky: @AmandaVinicky | [email protected]